EZ Skins EZ Lyfe EZ Wins EZ Knife

This is a small group where I bet on CSGO Lounge and tell you guys what I bet! I will be posting analyses on some of the games, their lengths varying. While I will try to cover most of the matches on CSGL, there will always be a few I miss. I have some experience and I will definitely gain more as I post predictions in the future. I recommend you follow many people, so you can get many viewpoints and decide for yourself on whom and how much to bet.

While I have a very small inventory (<$5) I have been following many betters and the teams for a while now so I know more than I look like I do :P It will just take time for my inventory to grow.

I will post the Kelly Criterion in my bets, although I don't use it much myself due to my low inv. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that calculates how much you should bet by taking advantage of the differences between betting odds (percents on CSGL) and real odds (who will win). It can be useful to serve as a guide but I wouldn't follow it religiously as it's a high-risk high-reward system. In addition it doesn't work well unless your inventory has some value to it (let's say at least $10)

I will cover most EU games, most T1/T2 NA games, and practically all games at events like LANs. Others I might cover from time to time but don't expect it here.

Good luck and happy betting! |
EZ Skins EZ Lyfe EZ Wins EZ Knife!

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FragBite Masters May 19th: T1 vs T2 teams, Best of 3

May 18, 2015 - fizzle =D | 0 Comments

These are all Best of 3s. Each team bans two maps, then each team picks a map and the last map is the tiebreaker.a

TSM vs Dignitas

This game is interesting -- it deserves a full analysis. TSM have not been doing as well as they were known for recently and Dignitas has recently been more T1 than T2. The last time these two played just 4 days ago, TSM won 2-1, with Mirage being the close map, a 16-13 win for TSM. Cache was ez for Dignitas and Inferno was ez for TSM.

cache 65-35 Dignitas
cobble 55-45 Dignitas
train 65-35 Dignitas

dust2 70-30 TSM
mirage 55-45 TSM
inferno 67-33 TSM
overpass 55-45 TSM (both teams suck at this map)

Dignitas ban Overpass and Dust2 (or Inferno)
TSM ban Train and Cobble (or Cache)

Dignitas choose Cache/Cobble
TSM choose Inferno/Dust2
Mirage tiebreaker

Calculated odds: 54 - 46 favoring TSM
These odds though... I feel they don't tell the real truth. I would lower them to 63 - 37 to be realistic.

BET: LOW (8%) DIGNITAS
Note however, that the CSGL odds keep changing. I will try to update the odds in the morning.

Fnatic vs Team Acer

Acer have such a low chance here. If you would like, you can max bet on Fnatic here and it should be very safe. But unless you can get a decent return out of it, don't bother. The CSGL odds are pretty accurate here.
BET: SKIP OR HIGH FNATIC (>30%)

HR vs Virtus.Pro

HR are a strong T2 team, but can they stand up to VirtusPro? This should be a pretty safe game but HR have upset this team before. Keep the golden rule in mind, don't bet too much on VP.

My odds: 75 - 25 favoring VP
BET: SKIP OR MED VP (10-15%)

Gfinity LAN Semifinals: VP vs NaVi

May 16, 2015 - fizzle =D | 0 Comments

The semifinals, unlike the group stages, will be played in a BO3 format. Each team will ban 1 map, then pick 1 map each, then ban 1 map each, and the remaining map will be the tiebreaker.

VP vs NaVi

This is a very even matchup I feel. Even though NaVi has won so many of the previous matchups against VP. This matchup is weird as almost every map in the pool heavily favors one team. Let's look at the facts and see for ourselves.

VP vs NaVi Maps Overview

Cache: NaVi play poorly on this map. They have lost 16-5 against VP in the recent past and on this map they have only won sparingly against T2 and NA teams such as Penta, Titan, and Liquid. Should be ez VP. VP has lost maybe three out of the last 20 times they have played on Cache.

Dust2: VP usually ban this map. They actually won against TSM, a strong team on this map recently, but it was 1 match and TSM hadn't played in a while. This is something we should expect to be banned however, NaVi just outclass VP on Dust2.

Mirage: This used to be NaVi's best map, but it seems they have fallen out of practice on this map. VP have a good record on Mirage. Both sides have won on Mirage but VP's win was more recent. I favor VP here but not too much.

Inferno: NaVi have shown they are wonderful on this map. VP... well not so much. This is a trump card in NaVi's sleeve for sure. The last time they versed on this map NaVi won 16-9.

Train: VP has played this map a lot since its readdition and have shown they are really good compared to other top teams right now. NaVi haven't played this map since 2014. Hmm... unless NaVi pulls skill out of nowhere I can't see them winning on Train.

Cobble: While VP has lost to NaVi on this map two times recently, it's probably the closest map the two teams have. The more recent loss was 16-14, which isn't very conclusive.

Overpass: VP is not a particularly bad team on Overpass but it's NaVi territory for sure, and VP stealing this map is very unlikely.

VP vs NaVi Map Picks

VP will ban Dust2, Inferno, or Overpass (ordered by likeliness)
NaVi will ban Cache or Train (ordered by likeliness)

VP will pick Cache/Train, whatever wasn't banned
NaVi will pick Overpass, Dust2, or Inferno (ordered by likeliness)

VP will ban whatever is left out of Dust2, Inferno, or Overpass
NaVi will ban Mirage

And I predict the tiebreaker to be Cobble

VP vs NaVi Thoughts on Map Picks

These picks really favor the sides that chose them. I just don't see either team taking each other's map pick, it's just seems so unlikely. These teams have opposite good and bad maps, so every map is very 1-sided.

Except for Cobblestone, which is much more evenly balanced. While NaVi has won twice recently against VP on Cobble, like I said earlier the latest one was 14-16, and with that score 1 mistake could've cost NaVi the game.

VP vs NaVi Odds and Bet

1st map: 80-20 VP
2nd map: 75-25 NaVi
3rd map: 55-45 NaVi

IN ALL: 59 - 41 NaVi

Let's check the Kelly Criterion for our bet amount ^-^
It says 23%, but we should never use the full percent.

Based on the Kelly Criterion, I would suggest a 7% low bet on NaVi. But really, with Virtus.Plow rocking lately, and such close odds, seriously anything could happen. So my suggestion is to skip.

BET: SKIP or 7% (LOW) NAVI

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